Back on 1 July, The Economist proclaimed the imminent demise of the bike courier:
Look around: bike messengers, the freewheeling mavericks whose tattooed calves and daredevil stunts once defined urban cool, are slowly vanishing from America's streets. In New York, the hub of the messenger world, the number has skidded from 2,500 during the dotcom frenzy in the 1990s to an estimated 1,100 today, according to Joel Metz, who runs www.messengers.org, the website of the International Federation of Bike Messenger Associations.
The reason is straightforward. High-speed internet, PDF files, digital photography and digital audio have been eroding bike-messenger revenues by between 5-10% a year since 2000, or so reckons Lorenz Gotte, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Zurich (and a former bike messenger himself). The revenue slump has sent wages tumbling. In 2000, messengers in San Francisco could make $20 an hour. Now the average is closer to $11.
Professor of Economics Greg Mankiw sees this as a "striking example" of how "recent increases in income inequality are largely attributable to technological changes that have reduced the demand for less-skilled workers". Many respondents on his blog beg to differ, and maybe technological advance isn't the primary cause of income inequality but my guess is that it's a significant contributing factor.
That said, The Economist seems to sense that proclaiming the death of bike couriers might be akin to the exaggerations about the death of Mark Twain:
Bike messengers have survived dire prophecies before. In the 1980s, doomsayers had predicted that the fax machine would push the profession into oblivion. Faxes did indeed carve a big chunk out of the business, but messengers hung on, thanks both to the poor quality of faxes and to new technology, such as pagers, which allowed prompter dispatch.
But the whole digital thing is quite a different proposition — we're no longer talking about rough copies of the original — a copy of a digital file is effectively identical to the original. The future for couriers seems to be focussing on stuff that can't be emailed, for example:
The legal system still relies on original documents, so some messengers cater to lawyers by offering benefits such as serving subpoenas and filing papers in court. "They are almost paralegals on bikes," says Mr Gotte.
I've got to say that the image of a bike-mounted paralegal is almost oxymoronic when set next to that earlier description about freewheeling mavericks with tattooed calves.
The rewards may be down, but the culture is as strong as ever:
Paradoxically, although their long-term prospects look wobbly, the messenger subculture has never been stronger. Their grimy allure is celebrated in books, films, festivals, and even trading cards. Last year's Cycle Messenger World Championship, held in New York, drew 700 competitors from 30 countries. Perhaps this signals a resurgence. More probably, it reflects the urge to honour a tradition that is beginning to slip away.
Is the future really so dire for bike couriers? Well, I don't think we've seen the last of them but it does look like an increasingly tough way to make a living.
And a final thought from a commenter on Mankiw's blog: "but on the other hand pedicabs are now seen in our major cities" – there's the ultimate cargo that can't be sent digitally: people.
Very true, Peter. And I think that's the whole point really - bike couriers are going to be left carrying only the stuff that really can't be sent digitally: essentially that amounts to physical objects. Food delivery was another example given in The Economist article. Again, something of a niche market I would have thought.
Although niche markets can be profitable for some, in general it looks like tougher times ahead for bike messengers.
An interesting article.
I know that the Community of Bike Messengers in downtown Los Angeles no longer seem to be meeting at the same place they used to congregate.
Good article. I work in magazine publishing in London. Eight years ago we used to have a bike courier collect pictures and page proofs three times a day (four times on a press day) to deliver to our repro house. He would also deliver stuff to us, like cromalins and photographs. Now we have one collection and one drop off per week. This is mainly because the whole magazine production process is completely digital and everything gets sent down the wire rather than cross country on a bike.
the picture above is one, "hans poot" of boston bicycle messenger fame, funny that the article mentions nothing of boston or its messengers who are fucked by the states mandated health insurance law, and the amazing drivers known as massholes. good job guys.
Uninformed stereotyping, nothing like it.
people who are not bike messengers but have the standard look of a bike messengers(i.e. shoulder strapped bags, tattoos, piercings and sleek bicycles) are strangely multiplying everywhere. Whilst the real deal McCoys are living below the standard.
Indeed, I think hatley makes a pretty accurate observation there!
Thank you for your answer,yes i'm starting a courier but the bike courier is part of the side parcel business.what i wanted to know was where to go for client and again i live in south africa.where exactly do i go,not for funding but who would give me answers(any prefereed company you know of) in pretoria.
i live in the urban south africa in the city of pretoria,i thought to myself with the price of fuel on the increase almost every month i can start a messenger company in and around the city.i would like to know if i'm waisting my time on this venture or i can get away with.
I don't have any specific knowledge about the bike courier business, so I really can't comment on that. Maybe with the recent change in oil prices bike couriers might become a preferred mode of transporting goods? I suggest contacting some bike messenger associations and a local business advisor for more guidance.
Comments
A pretty small market, and one that will shrink over time with the futher uptake of digitial signatures, such as those authorised un the various Australian electronic transaction acts.