Comments on: Make roads safe http://treadly.net/2009/05/07/make-roads-safe/ Work is just something I do between bike rides Tue, 03 Jan 2012 06:01:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Charlie B. http://treadly.net/2009/05/07/make-roads-safe/comment-page-1/#comment-1563 Charlie B. Thu, 07 May 2009 12:39:33 +0000 http://treadly.net/2009/05/07/make-roads-safe/#comment-1563 <p>The other part of the reason H1N1/2009 hasn't been that bad yet is flu outbreaks take months to run their course. So far, this one is behaving similarly to H1N1/1918 (so-called Spanish Flu), where an initially mild flu spread in the early flu season, but later on mutated to one with a far more severe pathology that killed many millions of people. It's only a handful of years ago that we had a different flu variant that had a very severe pathology but fortunately wasn't at all good at human-human transmission (H5N1 or bird flu, that was tagged).</p> <p>So while the point on road trauma deaths compared to some other risks to life that we (or the media) blow out of proportion is a good one - say, terrorism, or shark attack - in this particular case I think you've missed the mark. It's an easy mark to miss, though - the science of flu epidemiology isn't exactly bedtime reading, and the risks are difficult to fully explain.</p> <p>I do agree that more could be done to reduce road trauma, but the WHO's real targets are places like Vietnam, China, Egypt and so on - Vietnam has over 30 deaths a day on the roads. Australia, scary as it can be for cyclists at times, is a paradise of safe roads, by comparison.</p> The other part of the reason H1N1/2009 hasn’t been that bad yet is flu outbreaks take months to run their course. So far, this one is behaving similarly to H1N1/1918 (so-called Spanish Flu), where an initially mild flu spread in the early flu season, but later on mutated to one with a far more severe pathology that killed many millions of people. It’s only a handful of years ago that we had a different flu variant that had a very severe pathology but fortunately wasn’t at all good at human-human transmission (H5N1 or bird flu, that was tagged).

So while the point on road trauma deaths compared to some other risks to life that we (or the media) blow out of proportion is a good one – say, terrorism, or shark attack – in this particular case I think you’ve missed the mark. It’s an easy mark to miss, though – the science of flu epidemiology isn’t exactly bedtime reading, and the risks are difficult to fully explain.

I do agree that more could be done to reduce road trauma, but the WHO’s real targets are places like Vietnam, China, Egypt and so on – Vietnam has over 30 deaths a day on the roads. Australia, scary as it can be for cyclists at times, is a paradise of safe roads, by comparison.

]]> By: eccles http://treadly.net/2009/05/07/make-roads-safe/comment-page-1/#comment-1564 eccles Wed, 06 May 2009 23:30:20 +0000 http://treadly.net/2009/05/07/make-roads-safe/#comment-1564 <p>Er... except that there's a significant difference in the cause of death. Road deaths will never drop to zero; people are in control of a tonne of metal doing 100km/hr and, well, often are stupid, so accidents are inevitable. Even just sheer bad luck can cause a fast moving car to lose control and kill people.</p> <p>(Part of the reason swine flu was effectively a non-event is because there was a sudden and effective move to shut it down. So it looks like a beat up, whereas it was more in the realm of "well managed")</p> Er… except that there’s a significant difference in the cause of death. Road deaths will never drop to zero; people are in control of a tonne of metal doing 100km/hr and, well, often are stupid, so accidents are inevitable. Even just sheer bad luck can cause a fast moving car to lose control and kill people.

(Part of the reason swine flu was effectively a non-event is because there was a sudden and effective move to shut it down. So it looks like a beat up, whereas it was more in the realm of “well managed”)

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